Tag Archives: polls

Nate Silver is not having any of the news orgs’ infotainment, reality-show, photo-finish bullshit

Posted on by

“If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.”

— Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased – NYTimes.com

“What I find confounding about [those who believe the race is a tossup] is that the argument we’re making is exceedingly simple. Here it is: “Obama’s ahead in Ohio.”

— Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com

via: silas216, politicalprof

Make it so: VOTE!!

The Romney Wave: “Obama has proven to be very slow, but very deadly. I doubt that’s changed.”

Posted on by

Jonathan Chait: “On the other hand, a continued series of events like last week’s debate really might change the narrative of the race. And here is the bad news for Democrats: Their best shot has already come and gone. The debates will anchor the campaign narrative from here on out, and the three debates that follow all offer less favorable terrain for them to press their case.”

Ta-Nehisi Coates: ”This is a real threat. The reporting indicates that Obama now understands that. Hopefully he is now willing to give Romney the respect he deserves. This is a man bent on taking the White House and putting Obama’s signature achievement (health care) in peril, and likely shifting the Supreme Court to the right, thus endangering (among other things) the right to choose. Wiser men and women than me can better sketch the stakes. My point is this: I am sorry that the president finds debating before the public to be annoying. And I am very sorry that more Americans don’t delve into the footnotes of position papers. And I am very sorry that Mitt Romney was mean to the moderator, and lied to the viewers. And I am especially sorry that Barack Obama was evidently shocked — shocked! — to find the party of poll-taxing, evolution-disputing, and climate-change denying engaging in such tactics. But this is the war we have. And this president has signed up to lead the fight. I think he understands that. Over the past four years Obama has proven to be very slow, but very deadly. I doubt that’s changed.”

Mitt Romney has bought himself a 2% lead in Michigan: Romney now at 32%, Santorum at 30%

Posted on by

In Michigan, Romney has successfully clawed his way past the fanatical Cardinal Santorum (Jesus’ proxy here on Earth) to hold a lead of 32%. Soon we’ll find out if Michigan Republicans prefer a plutocracy or a theocracy.

Mitt Romney now barely leading in Michigan after spending twice as much as Santorum – A new snap poll from Michigan firm Mitchell Research & Communications Inc. shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney retaking the lead in the state with 32 percent of voters polled on Monday, President’s Day. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum took 30 percent, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich got nine and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) sees seven.

But how much money does a 2% lead cost?

Mitt Romney’s campaign plowing through cash, not getting much back

  • 287% the “burn rate” of Mitt’s campaign in January
  • $18M the amount Mitt spent on the campaign trail in January
  • $6.5M the amount Mitt got in donations last month — far less than he took in
  • $7.7M the amount Mitt had in the bank at the end of January source

It has to be the money. I can’t imagine the people of Michigan are being swept away by Romeny’s personal anecdotes:

source: sandandglass: “The trees are the right height.”

Update:

The video:

Patriotic Americans do not care for the Tea Party or Sarah Palin

Posted on by

Apparently the Tea Party isn’t speaking for many people in America today, except for a few sad, self-described “Christian racists patriots” who are still devoted to Beck and Palin:

Two months after they voted in droves to topple Democrats from the House and expand Republican voices in the Senate, the tea party movement’s disapproval ratings have reached a new high, according to a new ABC/Washington Post poll.

Fifty-two percent of the US public had an unfavorable view of “the political movement known as the Tea Party,” the survey found, as opposed to only 35 percent who approved.

And Sarah Palin’s Full Metal Self-Exposure is finally getting to people — she’s earned herself some record high unfavoribility ratings:

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin reached a new milestone Wednesday, and it wasn’t a good one. Her unfavorability ratings have reached record highs, according to a recently-released CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll.

According to the survey, Palin’s unfavorability rating stands at 56 percent, its highest ever, and up seven percentage points from a similar poll taken before the midterm election. Her favorability rating, on the other hand, currently stands at 36 percent, the survey finds, down two points since October.

So it’s no surprise that the tea partiers and Palin are ranked highly on the following list:

The 50 Most Loathsome Americans of 2010

9) Tea Partiers

Charges: Openly racist and lying about it, uber-religious, hyper-hypocritical, usually-tetched old codgers who wheel around in their Medicare-provided Hoverounds® and rage against fiscally irresponsible social programs, like Medicare, because they’re too dumb to realize that they’re co-opted, Machiavellian mouthpieces of greedy billionaires.

Aggravating factor: They elected some 40 candidates to Congress.
Sentence: The consequences of their actions.

6) Sarah Palin

Charges: An ideologically abhorrent dunce whose answer to everything—caribou, wolves, Julian Assange, feminism, science, decency, accountability, the English language, Democratic incumbents—is to shoot it dead. From conspiring to advance her ham-legged, clopping daughter on “Dancing with the Stars” to successfully endorsing a slew of faux-revolutionary Tea Party imbeciles, she’s a persistent, violent rash on the entire body politic.

Aggravating factor: “But obviously, we’ve got to stand with our North Korean allies.”
Sentence: Shot in the head by a bear.

http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2010/04/15/alg_boston_sarah-palin.jpg

Video: Some persepective from Reagan’s poll numbers in 1983

Posted on by

h/t BobCesca:

VortexTech:

“This network TV report dramatically describes President Reagan’s terrible poll numbers in January 1983 (two years into office) mainly due to concerns about the economy. Reagan of course went on less than two years later to a landslide popular and electoral vote victory — winning 49 out of 50 states. Just a bit of archival history for Team Obama — and all of us — to remember as we approach the same juncture of the Obama presidency and a similar bemoaning over polling numbers.”

There’s disapproval over the economy, increases in military spending, reductions in social programs (ketchup’s a vegetable!!), messing around with Social Security…  it’s as if the GOP’s recent “Pledge to America” is a collection of crib notes from Reagan’s first term, with the added bonus of Bush’s tax cuts for the rich.

Vote accordingly on November 2nd.

American journalism today: “Oh no you di’ent” sound bites

Posted on by

“I don’t know what the Associated Press has against counting higher numbers, but this is a very annoying headline: “Nearly Half Oppose Tax Hikes for Rich…”

Of course, the converse of “nearly half” is “more than half,” and the quoted poll — a new survey by AP-Gfk — makes this clear. According to the poll, 54 percent of voters support raising taxes on the highest earners, while 44 percent oppose.”

- “Raise taxes on the rich!” Say a Majority of Americans.

And yet the AP would rather focus on the 44% opposed instead of the 54% in favor. Not exactly the act of a “liberal” media, is it? — ryking

And the media would rather report on a Republican and a Democrat perhaps disagreeing on the poll or the report — just the individuals arguing about something and, better yet, potentially insulting each other.  Bonus points if Palin has tweeted a comment about it.

That’s American journalism today — the “Oh no you di’ent” sound bites. No one makes money on facts and research anymore.

Good news for Dems doesn’t fit the preferred storyline

Posted on by

Eric Boehlert on this week’s Gallup poll that won’t get much attention:

Last week, when Gallup announced that Republicans held a ten-point lead over Democrats when respondents were asked their congressional voting preference, and that the ten-point gap (51-41%) marked an all-time height for a GOP advantage, the Beltway and right-wing media exploded with commentary.

[...] But oops, this week’s Gallup survey finds that the Republican ten-point “generic poll” advantage has evaporated. It’s gone. Adiós. Democrats and Republicans are suddenly tied in the generic poll. (And yes, that’s precisely what the latest Newsweek poll also found.)

But good luck finding the non-stop commentary and reporting in the mainstream and right-wing press about the latest Gallup results. They just don’t fit the preferred storyline.

The Idiocracy

Posted on by

Can you spot the disconnect? As far as I’m concerned, the above chart settles it: Americans just don’t jack about politics. Prioritizing federal spending to create jobs over reducing the federal deficit and letting the Bush tax cuts expire for the top earners are core Democratic issues — and something that Republicans have been campaigning against as recently as last week. Yet as the second poll shows, Americans trust Republicans to better handle issues related to spending, jobs, and the economy. (Poll 1, Poll 2)

Can you spot the disconnect?

technipol: As far as I’m concerned, the above chart settles it: Americans just don’t jack about politics. Prioritizing federal spending to create jobs over reducing the federal deficit and letting the Bush tax cuts expire for the top earners are core Democratic issues — and something that Republicans have been campaigning against as recently as last week. Yet as the second poll shows, Americans trust Republicans to better handle issues related to spending, jobs, and the economy. (Poll 1, Poll 2)

Clearly a breakdown in communication and messaging on the part of the Dems as well.